POLL: A HIGHLY COMPETITIVE KENTUCKY U.S. SENATE RACE TAKES SHAPE

6 a.m. ET, Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Contact: media@charlesbookerky.org

POLL: A HIGHLY COMPETITIVE KENTUCKY U.S. SENATE RACE TAKES SHAPE
Fresh polling shows Democrat Charles Booker and Republican Andy Barr are in a tight race to replace Mitch McConnell

LOUISVILLE, KY — Today, Booker for the Commonwealth announced the results of the first publicly available general election benchmark survey of the Kentucky U.S. Senate race between Democrat Charles Booker and Republican Andy Barr. The poll shows a significantly more competitive race than conventional wisdom suggests, with the two nominees separated by single-digits.

Conducted by Global Strategy Group, the survey of 600 likely Kentucky voters conducted between August 24 and 27, 2026 shows not only a tight race for Senate, but Trump’s favorability and his job approval are both under water in a state he won by 30 points in 2024, and Mitch McConnell has a dismal 13% favorability rating statewide.

On key issues, a majority of Kentucky’s likely voters disapprove of both the Iran war (56%) and Trump’s tariffs (52%), and six in ten (58%) are concerned that Andy Barr is in the pockets of Big Tech and data center developers.

In the race to replace Mitch McConnell in the U.S. Senate, the more voters learn about Charles Booker and Andy Barr, the more the race tightens. The poll included extensive message-testing, and the findings are striking:

Currently, Barr leads Booker by 9 points, 49% to 40%. However, the race is clearly still fluid, and significant voter movement occurs over the course of the survey.
When voters receive information about both candidates, both positive and negative, the race moves to a 43%–43% tie.
Criticism of Barr’s record in Washington is powerful, in large part because it dovetails with voters’ broader concerns about corrupt, out of touch politicians.
Importantly, even after voters receive negative information about Booker the race remains close. These attacks do very little to change the contours of the race.

Additional key findings in the poll include:

Barr (36% unfav) has higher unfavorable ratings across Kentucky than Booker (31%), including a quarter (24%) of non-MAGA Republicans who hold negative feelings toward Barr.
Among those likely voters who are familiar with the candidates, Booker (+6 net fav) is perceived more favorably than Barr (+2).
27% of Kentucky’s likely electorate are true independents, among whom Booker currently leads the race. A quarter of independents (24%) are still undecided.
More than a third (35%) of likely voters have yet to fully make up their minds, swinging back and forth between Booker, Barr, and undecided over the course of the survey and comprise the moveable persuadable universe of KY swing voters.
Only 1 in 5 (21%) likely voters say Kentucky is headed in the right direction, while almost half (48%) say the state is off on the wrong track - including 50% of Republicans, 52% of Independents and 54% of white non-college voters. Another third (31%) of voters give the Commonwealth mixed reviews.

“This poll clearly establishes our path to victory, informing what we need to do and talk about as we move towards November 3rd,” said Pollster and Senior Research Advisor Mario Brossard.

“By working both hard and smart and with investments, this is a winnable race, plain and simple. As Kentuckians learn more about the choice before them, Charles Booker’s path to victory only grows stronger,” said General Consultant and Chief Strategist Kamau Marshall.

“We’ve been telling Kentucky and the country for months that Kentucky is in play, and this new poll further solidifies our race as a battleground,” said Charles Booker. “This poll confirms the momentum we're building across the Commonwealth. Kentucky voters are demanding leadership in the U.S. Senate who will put them first—not special interests. I'll take on the corruption and rigged system holding us back. I'll fight for congressional term limits, get bad money out of politics, and crack down on corporate price gouging and big tech overreach. Andy Barr is a continuation of Mitch McConnell's failed leadership. He's voted to cut health care and Medicaid, protected powerful interests, and broken his promises to working Kentuckians. He can't clean up the swamp because he helped fill it up. This race is about delivering real change: fighting corruption, lowering costs for workers and family farmers, ending endless wars, and bringing good-paying jobs home to Kentucky. That's the leadership our Commonwealth deserves, and that's exactly what I'll bring to the U.S. Senate."

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Global Strategy Group conducted a multi-channel (phone + text-to-web) survey of 600 likely General Election voters in Kentucky between August 24 and 27, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.